El Niño Strengthens: Sri Lanka Faces Higher Rainfall, Flood and Landslide Risks

A strengthening El Niño is raising concerns over Sri Lanka’s weather in the coming months, with the latest U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assessment placing the probability of a very strong El Niño event at more than 90% for the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27. NOAA also says there is a 75% chance of a historic-strength event during October–December 2026.

The latest development is significant for Sri Lanka as the Department of Meteorology had warned in July that El Niño was then at a weak level, with a 63% probability of a very strong event developing between November 2026 and January 2027.

Based on its analysis of past El Niño events from 1950 to 2025, Sri Lanka’s Meteorology Department said rainfall could generally be above normal from October onward, with increased rainfall potentially continuing until December if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) develops.

The department specifically warned that increased rainfall from October could contribute to floods and landslides, calling for preparedness and close monitoring. Agriculture, water management, livestock, health and energy were identified among the sectors requiring attention.

The July forecast had also projected above-normal rainfall across most parts of the Western and Southern provinces in September, while below-normal rainfall was expected in many other areas.

With NOAA now reporting a significantly stronger El Niño outlook, Sri Lanka’s rainfall and associated weather risks will require close monitoring as the country enters the October–December period. The Meteorology Department has stressed that El Niño is not the only factor influencing Sri Lanka’s weather and that its updated forecasts, advisories and warnings should be followed.

(LankaXoress.com )